THE DEM DEVIL IS IN THE DETAILS – AT 9:32 A.M. ET:  The Rasmussen tracker continues to show some gain for the president as a result of the health care vote.  But when you look at the details, the gain may be less significant than it appears:

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Wednesday shows that 31% of the nation's voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -11 (see trends).

The Approval Index rating today represents a seven-point gain for the President compared to a week ago. The bounce comes entirely from increased enthusiasm among Democrats. Today, 60% of Democrats Strongly Approve while only 9% Strongly Disapprove. A week ago, those figures were 46% Strongly Approve and 14% Strongly Disapprove.

Among Republicans, the President’s Approval Index was at -66 a week ago and is the same today. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, the President’s Approval Index rating was -25 a week ago and -26 today.

These results are based upon daily telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, one-third of the interviews for today’s update were completed before the House of Representatives passed health care legislation on Sunday.

COMMENT:  So, the bounce comes entirely from Democratic enthusiasm.  That may, of course, ultimately mean more Dems coming to the polls in November.  But without an improvement in independent support, which is really down the drain for The One, it's hard to see how the Dems can avoid major losses.

Wait, I know one way – if the Republican Party becomes overconfident, its traditional problem, and doesn't do the job.  Now is the time for Republicans to run as if they're 20 points behind.

March 24, 2010